Lionel Messi is defying age, logic, and every expectation the football world could have for a 38-year-old. The Argentina captain now holds a 38% chance of winning the Golden Boot as the tournament’s top scorer. The prediction comes just days after he became the all-time leading scorer in World Cup history with 18 goals.
The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner has scored all five of Argentina’s goals so far in the 2026 tournament, including a hat-trick against Algeria and a brace against Austria that pushed him past Miroslav Klose’s previous record of 16. His 18th goal came in stoppage time of the 2-0 victory against Austria, sealing Argentina’s advancement to the knockout round and making history in the process.
Messi’s record-breaking run has been nothing short of breathtaking. He scored his first goal of the 2026 tournament against Algeria, netting a hat-trick in Argentina’s 3-0 win. That performance moved him level with Klose at 16 goals. Six days later, against Austria, he delivered again. His 38th-minute strike, a perfectly timed finish off Facundo Medina’s cross, gave him his 17th World Cup goal. He added an 18th in stoppage time to cement his place alone at the top.
The milestone is even more remarkable considering Messi missed an early penalty in the same match. “There were moments when I was really angry about missing the penalty, but I was able to make up for it,” he said after the game. He now joins Just Fontaine and Jairzinho as the only players to score in six consecutive World Cup matches.
The Golden Boot race is unusually tight this year, with no clear betting favorite dominating the conversation. Different sportsbooks have different frontrunners: FanDuel favors Harry Kane (+310), DraftKings favors Messi (+300), and BetMGM has both Messi and Kylian Mbappé as co-favorites (+275).
Prediction markets, however, show Messi pulling ahead. His probability of winning the Golden Boot rose by 12% in 24 hours, surpassing Mbappé. Harry Kane sits at 16%, while Cristiano Ronaldo lags at just 2%. The Argentine legend has never won a World Cup Golden Boot before, despite his otherworldly career. This may be his final chance to claim the one individual trophy that has eluded him.
Argentina has already secured its spot in the knockout stage. With one group match remaining, Messi has a chance to extend his record further. His 28th World Cup appearance is a FIFA record, and he shows no signs of slowing down.
Austria’s coach Ralf Rangnick summed up the feeling: “Someone who is 39 years old and can score two goals, and five goals overall at the beginning of the World Cup, well, that makes a difference. Lionel Messi showed us today that he’s one of the best, and he is the best”. The question now is whether Argentina can go all the way, and whether Messi can add a Golden Boot to his already overflowing trophy case.
